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CRM Design to Reduce Churn Rates — How to Predict Churn Using Emotional Temperature and Nurturing Scores

Hello, this is Matsubara, CRM Evangelist.

"I didn't notice any signs until I received a cancellation notice."

"At the time of contract renewal, I was suddenly told, 'We're switching to another company.'"

"We want to lower our churn rate, but we don't know what we need to improve."

This is a phrase I hear repeatedly from companies that provide subscription-based businesses and recurring billing services.

Churn (cancellation) is not something that happens suddenly one day.
There are always warning signs.
The problem is that there is no system in place to capture these warning signs "as data."

EMOROCO CRM Lite's two-axis design, combining **emotional temperature (subjective data) x nurturing score (objective data)**, visualizes the early signs of churn and functions as a mechanism to take proactive measures before customers cancel their subscriptions.

Does churn happen "suddenly"?

Churn analysis research has shown that many customers who end up canceling their subscriptions exhibit changes in their behavioral patterns several months before the cancellation.

[Typical precursor patterns to churn]

① Decrease in frequency of use and contact
　→ Access to the portal will decrease.
　→ Reduced contact with the person in charge

② Changes in support and inquiries
　→ Inquiries suddenly decrease (indifference)
　→ Or an increase in inquiries expressing dissatisfaction.

③ Changes in the person in charge's perception
　→ "I feel like the response has been lukewarm lately."
　→ "I feel like they're avoiding talking about contract renewal."

④ The contract renewal period is approaching.
　→ When I bring up the topic of updates, the response is poor.

The problem is that while ① and ② can be objectively quantified, ③ depends on the individual's perception and does not leave any record as data.
EMOROCO CRM Lite integrates and visualizes these two elements.

Visualize churn risk using two axes.

Axis ①: Nurturing score (objective behavioral data)

Actions that affect the score:
- Number of accesses to the customer portal
• Time spent inside the portal
• Contact rate in CRM (frequency of interaction with the person in charge)

Customers whose scores are declining or stagnating at a low level are, objectively speaking, in a state of "decreased engagement."

Axis ②: Emotional Temperature (Subjective evaluation by the person in charge)

🔴 Hot: Deep and proactive relationship
🟠 Warm: Stable relationship
🔵 Cool: Feeling distant / Getting colder
🩵 Cold: Almost no contact

The "sense of warmth" that the person in charge perceives from daily interactions includes qualitative information such as "tone of voice" and "lack of response," which cannot be captured by numerical data alone.

Churn risk matrix with two axes superimposed

High ← Nurturing score → Low

Sensation Hot / ① Healthy repeat customers ② Attention - Emotions and
Emotional and warmth are both high and stable, but there is a discrepancy in behavior.
Warm ────────────────────────────────────────────
③ Early warning -- ④ High risk --
Cold engagement is decreasing, making churn highly likely.
They haven't realized it yet. This needs to be addressed as a top priority.

From the perspective of the Churn prediction, quadrant 4 is the most important.
Customers with a low nurturing score and an emotional temperature below "cool"—if this condition persists for a certain period—should be considered highly likely to churn.

Workflow design for churn prevention

Workflow ①: Immediate alert for Quadrant ④ (High Risk)

Trigger: Nurturing score is below the threshold.
　　　　　× Emotional temperature is below cool.
　　　　　× This condition continues for more than 30 days.

Action 1: Create an urgent task for the person in charge.
"Customer {Name} is at high churn risk."
　
　Nurturing score: {score}
　Emotional temperature: {emotional temperature}
　Last contact date: {Last contact date}
　
　Please contact me by the end of this week.
　Consultation on reviewing contract terms, hearing about challenges,
　Alternatively, you can rebuild the relationship by simply catching up on each other's lives."

Action ②: Notify manager
"Customer {Name} has a high churn risk."
　Please consider escalating the issue."

Workflow ②: Proactive follow-up for Quadrant ③ (Early Warning)

Trigger: Nurturing score reaches 30 days
　　　　　Significant decrease × Emotional temperature remains unchanged

Action: Create a task for the person in charge
There has been a change in {customer name}'s usage status.
　The emotional temperature remains {emotional temperature},
　Portal access and contact rates are decreasing.
　
　There may be changes that you, as the person in charge, are unaware of.
　Please contact me to check on my current situation."

This workflow is the greatest value of two-axis design.
Objective data can detect changes that the person in charge may not even be aware of.

Workflow ③: Churn risk assessment 3 months before contract renewal

Trigger: Two months before the contract renewal date

Action: Create a task for the person in charge
"Your contract renewal date for {customer name} is in 3 months."
　
　Current nurturing score: {score}
　Current emotional temperature: {emotional temperature}
　
　If both are at a high level: Proceed with preparing the update proposal.
　If either is low: Before updating, improve the relationship.
　　Prioritize taking action.

Waiting until the renewal period is approaching to take action will be too late.
The system is designed to assess and address churn risk with ample time, three months in advance.

Designing a dashboard to improve churn rate

[Churn Risk Dashboard for Managers]

View 4: Distribution of customer numbers by quadrant
　→ Monitor the number of customers in quadrant ④ (high risk) weekly.

View ②: List of new customers in Quadrant ④
　→ Quickly identify new high-risk customers this week.

View 3: Customers whose contracts are due to renew within 3 months × Current risk status
　→ Prioritize customers who need attention before the update.

View ④: Reflection after churn
　→ Which quadrant were the customers who actually canceled their subscriptions in before they canceled?
　→ Continuously verify and improve the accuracy of predictions.

Why is relying solely on "emotional temperature" or "score" insufficient?

Limitations of judging solely on emotional temperature:
- The optimistic bias of the person in charge is directly reflected.
- Based on the assumption that "it will be alright"
　There is a risk of missing the signs of churn.

Limitations of judging solely on nurturing scores:
- Why is the level of involvement decreasing?
　The context (reason) is not clear.
Even if the score is slightly lower, emotionally
　In some cases, a strong relationship of trust still exists.
　There is also the risk of overreacting.

By overlaying the two axes, we can capture realities that are not visible with a single indicator, such as "the data is healthy but emotions are cold" or "emotions are good but behavioral data is declining."

Transforming Churn Analysis from "Looking Back at the Past" to "Preventing the Future"

Many companies' churn analysis is limited to reviewing "why customers canceled" after the fact.
This is an important lesson, but it's an analysis of customers that have already been lost.

EMOROCO CRM Lite's two-axis matrix visualizes "customers who are likely to churn" in real time.
This design shifts churn analysis from a "post-event review" to a "proactive prevention" approach.

Post-event analysis (traditional):
Cancellation → Analyze why the customer canceled → Use this information to benefit future customers
　(That customer will never come back.)

Proactive prevention (EMOROCO CRM Lite):
Churn risk detection → Proactive follow-up → Relationship rebuilding
　(This will allow us to maintain our relationship with that customer.)

Summary — Making the "warning signs of churn" visible.

Churn doesn't happen suddenly.
There are always warning signs.
The essence of improving the churn rate lies in visualizing these warning signs by combining them with objective data, rather than relying solely on the "intuition of the person in charge."

Using a two-axis matrix of emotional temperature and nurturing score, you can identify customers who have "healthy data but are emotionally distant" and "customers whose behavioral data is declining but whose account managers are unaware of it."

First, set an emotional temperature for all customers and begin comparing it with their nurturing score.
Identifying how many customers are in quadrant ④ (high risk) is the starting point for churn prevention measures.

Click here for a 30-day free trial of EMOROCO CRM Lite.
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Product Info:https://www.emoroco.com/

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Person who wrote this article
Shinsuke Matsubara

Arcus Japan Representative Director / CRM Consultant
Click here for detailed profile
He has worked as a system engineer, architect, and consultant at Accenture and other companies, an evangelist at Infragistics (Microsoft MVP for Dynamics CRM (now Microsoft MVP for Business Solutions)), and a solutions specialist at Microsoft (in charge of Dynamics CRM products).He currently leads a service team specializing in CRM, supporting CRM implementation and business launches for companies of all sizes.At the same time, he works as a CRM evangelist, spreading the idea of "true" CRM through events and article contributions.
Having learned CRM at Accenture, and having advocated and globally popularized CRM 2.0 (platform-based CRM) at Microsoft, he is a legitimate successor to CRM and the longest-serving active CRM expert (CRM consultant/CRM doctor), having received an award at Worldwide.
Since then, as a leading expert in CRM who advocates CRM 3.0 (Personalized CRM) and CRM 4.0 (Creative CRM), he has been interviewed and received numerous awards both domestically and internationally from publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, TIME, WORLDCOM, Mainichi Shimbun (Weekly Economist), and Nippon Cultural Broadcasting. He has also been selected as a representative company of the Kansai business community by "Keizaikai" for four consecutive years.
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