Hello, this is Matsubara, CRM Evangelist.

"I think that project is going well, but..."

Every time I hear this phrase in a sales meeting, I feel a little uneasy.
The information that "it feels good" is not data.
No matter how skilled a salesperson is, their subjective intuition can sometimes be wrong.
And when a deal that felt promising falls through, there's no information left to accurately analyze the reason why.

*This article is a fictional story based on industry realities and implementation patterns of multiple companies.

Before implementation—they were experiencing a series of lost deals where they didn't understand why they lost.

The IT vendor I manage is a medium-sized system integrator with 15 employees and 3 sales representatives.
We primarily develop and support the implementation of business systems for mid-sized manufacturing and distribution companies.

The order rate remained flat at around 20% for many years.
I made 10 proposals and secured 2 orders.
I had almost resigned myself to the fact that this figure was "our market rate."

The problem lay in the analysis of lost deals.
Of the eight deals we lost, we were only able to accurately articulate "why we lost" in two or three of them.
All that remained was vague information such as, "I feel like we lost to the competition on price," "The person in charge's reaction changed midway through," and "Apparently, the internal approval process ultimately failed."

At the time, managing business deals simply involved entering "deal name, amount, probability, and next action" into a shared spreadsheet within the company. This didn't reveal any patterns.
Despite five years of sales experience, we hadn't managed to capture any data on "what kinds of deals are likely to be won and what kinds are likely to be lost."

The Encounter—The Discovery: "We won't accept any projects where we haven't met the decision-maker."

I learned about EMOROCO CRM Lite through a recommendation from a fellow IT vendor in the same industry.
The phrase, "You can manage the structure of business negotiations in the field," really caught my attention.

The very first thing I did after implementing the system was to input data for the past two years' worth of projects (68 projects in total, including both successful and unsuccessful ones). It took me half a day.

The moment this task was completed, the first discovery occurred.

Of the 14 projects we secured, we had direct meetings with the decision-makers in 12 cases (86%) before submitting our final proposals.

Of the 54 deals that were lost, in 41 cases (76%), the decision-maker had never been met.

"We almost never accept projects if we haven't met with the decision-maker"—this was something I had vaguely sensed, but it was the first time I'd seen it in numbers.
Many of the deals that I thought were going well, after building relationships with the people in charge, were actually lost simply because they "didn't reach the decision-makers."

Design – Visualizing the 8 Risk Factors

Based on this discovery, we redesigned the fields in EMOROCO CRM Lite.

Designing the core fields of deal records

Decision-makers and stakeholders management:

Eight risk factor fields (multiple selections):

Projects with three or more checks in this risk factor field will be classified as "projects with a structurally low probability of being awarded."

[The core of the design]
Risk factors are not meant to "record pessimistic information."
This is a diagnostic tool to determine what actions to take now to increase the probability of securing orders.
If the decision-maker hasn't been contacted yet, I'll schedule an appointment this week.
If the competition is ahead, change your approach to differentiation.
Once the risks are identified, the course of action can be determined.

Three months later—from "it feels good" to "judging by its structure"

Three months after starting to use EMOROCO CRM Lite, the quality of our sales meetings has fundamentally changed.

Previous meeting:
"Regarding the project with Company A, the person in charge has responded positively. I'll bring the proposal next week."
"Company B is positive about the situation, but we're having trouble moving to the next step..."

Meeting in 3 months:
"The project with Company A is progressing well emotionally, but there are still two risks: the decision-maker hasn't been contacted and the level of competition is unknown. My top priority will be to schedule a meeting with the decision-maker this week."
"Company B has four risk factors. There is no internal promoter and the budget has not been secured. Rushing the proposal will have a low success rate. First, we will focus on identifying the internal promoter."

The word "feel" disappeared from the meeting and was replaced by "structure" and "next action."

Six months later—the analysis of lost deals revealed the "next winning pattern."

Once we had accumulated six months' worth of sales negotiation data, we re-analyzed the lost deals.

Common characteristics of the projects received (last 6 months, 12 projects):

• Approvals have been met: 11 out of 12 (92%)
• Internal promoters are clearly identified: 10 out of 12 cases (83%)
• 9 out of 12 cases (75%) had two or fewer risk factors.

Common characteristics of lost deals (21 cases in the last 6 months):

• Approval level not contacted: 16 out of 21 cases (76%)
• Three or more risk factors: 14 out of 21 cases (67%)
• "Deeply entrenched by competitors" at the proposal stage: 11 out of 21 (52%)

The "winning pattern" that emerged from this was clear.

Three conditions for receiving an order:

1. Meet directly with the decision-maker within four weeks of the initial contact.
2. We must identify internal promoters (people who will become our internal sponsors).
3. Make proposals before competitors gain a significant foothold (change your strategy for deals where competitors are already ahead).

We shared these three conditions as a team and established a rule: "We will not write a proposal until all three conditions are met in every business negotiation."

"IS → FS Handover Design" — Transforming Team's Tacit Knowledge into Organizational Knowledge

The most effective change our team made was designing the handover process from IS (Inside Sales) to FS (Field Sales).

The previous handover information only included "company name, contact person's name, negotiation date, and estimated budget."
When FS first visited, they had zero information on things like "Why is this company interested in us?", "What challenges are the people in charge facing?", and "What is the internal decision-making structure like?".

We have established a rule to always record the following items in the EMOROCO CRM Lite handover narrative memo.

This narrative allowed FS to continue the conversation from the first visit as a "continuation of the previous one."
Starting with "I heard from your inside sales team that you mentioned that the biggest challenge is..." significantly accelerated the building of trust with the customer.

One year later—the order rate changed from 20% to 31%.

These figures are from one year after implementation.

More than the increase in our win rate from 20% to 31%, what I found most valuable was that "the number of unexplained lost deals was reduced to almost zero."
Even if a deal is lost, the data reveals "why it was lost." This analysis then changes the design of the next sales negotiation. This is what a "learning sales organization" looks like.

What I learned this past year—3 lessons

Lesson 1: Risk factors can also be used in "withdrawal decisions".

Projects with four or more risk factors indicate that "a large amount of resources are being allocated to projects with a low probability of success."
By being able to identify these kinds of cases early on and make the decision not to pursue them, we've been able to focus more on the cases that truly matter.

Lesson #2: Competitive analysis is more about "knowing" than "winning."

In the competitive landscape field, the most valuable insights were not "information on how to beat the competition," but rather "discovering patterns of losing to the competition."
When we saw the data showing that "the success rate for projects where a specific competitor is leading is below 15%", we were able to shift our strategy to "not compete on the same playing field as that competitor."

Lesson #3: Emotional temperature works even in B2B.

I used to think that "emotional temperature" was something for personal-to-person businesses, but it works in B2B as well.
By managing the emotional state of the person in charge (the point of contact) and the emotional state of the decision-maker (inferred from indirect information) separately, we can identify situations where "the person in charge is warm, but the information is not reaching the decision-maker."

Summary — Towards a sales organization that has moved beyond simply "feels good."

Sales at IT vendors and system integrators often rely heavily on the experience and intuition of highly skilled sales representatives.
But that doesn't become an "organizational asset." The moment the person in charge leaves the company, five years' worth of sales negotiation know-how disappears.

By visualizing the structure of a sales opportunity (decision-makers, promoters, competitors, risk factors) with EMOROCO CRM Lite, the language changes from "a promising deal" to "a deal that is structurally viable to win."
This transformation will simultaneously improve the order conversion rate and foster a learning organization.

If I were to tell my past self, who had given up and thought, "Our win rate is just average," I would say, "You simply weren't accurately recording the reasons for the lost deals."

[The first step you can take starting today] First, look back at the deals you lost over the past three months and simply check whether you were able to meet with the decision-maker. That number will be the starting point for improving your closing rate.

You can try it with a 30-day free trial.
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